Accuracy

How do I know this is accurate?

After elections in which VoterProb® was used, we run a report to test the accuracy of the algorithms.  Here’s what the columns mean:

  • Division or Ward:  Political entity
  • <Party> scored:  The population of voters whose scores were provided prior to the election.
    • Democrats, Independents, and/or Republicans.
  • Voted <Election>:  The number of voters within the population who voted.
  • Predict <Election>:  The number of voters VoterProb® predicted would vote.
  • Difference:  The difference between the number who voted and predicted.
  • Accuracy:  Predicted divided by Voted

Here are some examples:

Pennsylvania House of Representatives, District 182:

96% accurate

Pennsylvania House of Representatives, District 200:

98% accurate

City of Philadelphia:

94% accurate

Curious about a specific election?  We can run an examination of any election as long as we’re provided with the following:

  • Official voter file available immediately before the election
  • Official voter file available immediately after the election

Please contact us for custom election evaluations.

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