Candidates (and Campaign Managers)

Define your Universe

Who are you going to canvass? Who are you going to mail? Is it just whoever voted in the last election?

VoterProb® helps you put a fine point on these decisions. For instance, you can target different groups of voters based on their probability of voting:

  • Super voters (90+% chance of voting):  You want to reach these folks as they are money in the bank. Perhaps mail more complex issue based lit and/or arrange candidate in-person visits – and track conversion.
  • Leaning likely (70% – 89%):  This population needs a little bit more encouragement to cast their vote. Additional mailings and a text reminder on EDay may do the trick.
  • Lackadaisical (50% – 69%):  What issues motivate this group? When you’ve exhausted your Likely and Super voters, then spend any remaining time and money here. This group takes a lot more effort to get them to cast a vote for you.

What’s your win number?

VoterProb® helps you figure out which voters you need to target in order to win election. Take a look at the probability bands below for an example state house race:

If your win number is roughly half of the 13,000 votes cast in the last Primary, you need to start with the top voters, working your way down in the probabilities as your support scores accumulate.

If support is soft among super voters, you’ll know to keep working on less likely voters, targeting with mail and canvassing until your numbers look better.

Have extra time and resources? Cement your win by working extra hard to get lackadaisical voters to the polls.

Practice “banding”

Use the VoterProb® probability bands to define your strategy:

  • Start at the top and work your way down.
  • Target super voters with in-person visits – and record their support.
  • Keep track of who was personally reached, and reschedule those who were not at home.
  • As you complete each probability band (or group of bands), you now have a game plan for who to reach next.
  • You can also cluster canvassing to include super voters and any lesser voters who may live next door (or nearby). Maximize your canvassing outreach when knocking the door of your super voters.

Predict your voter turnout

As you accumulate support scores, periodically export a report from your campaign tracking software with the following for each voter:

  • Level of support
  • VoterProb® score

Add up the fractional probabilities in each level of support for a vote projection. For instance, suppose your highest level of support looks like this (intermediate probabilities are excluded for brevity):

.98 : 100 voters | Vote value:  98
.95 :  50 voters | Vote value:  48
.89 :  80 voters | Vote value:  71
.75 :  42 voters | Vote value:  32
.50 :  30 voters | Vote value:  15
.32 :  27 voters | Vote value:   9
.10 :  10 voters | Vote value:   1
----------------------------------
TOTAL 339 voters |  PROJECTED: 274 VOTES

Now you know what the projected outcome of the election might be as every vote you’ve accumulated is valued based on the voter’s unique VoterProb® score.

It’s your personal crystal ball.

Import into VoteBuilder, NationBuilder, spreadsheet, database, or other campaign management system

Your VoterProb® CSV import file is ready for use with your favorite campaign management system, spreadsheet, or database.

Learn more ≫

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